A Dangerous Duo in the White House
As Donald Trump solidifies his presidency in his second term in office, the global community faces a radically altered geopolitical landscape. The recently announced tariffs, signifying his willingness to start a global trade war, threats to annex Greenland and forcefully take control of the Panama Canal, not to mention his realignment with Vladimir Putin ensconced in the Kremlin, the geopolitical shockwaves are profound.
With J.D. Vance now serving as Vice President, the United States is not merely revisiting the tumultuous nationalism of Trump’s first term but laying the groundwork for a more ideologically coherent, far-reaching transformation of the American led world order.
While Trump remains erratic, media-obsessed, and transactional, Vance represents a darker, more calculated form of nationalism, steeped in a deep disdain for European liberalism and multilateralism.
Let’s explore the key differences between Trump and Vance, the very real possibility of Vance assuming the presidency, either through Trump’s death or political transition, and the profound implications this duo holds for international stability. More urgently, it makes the case that the United Kingdom must stop reacting to Washington’s impulses and begin forging a sovereign, long-term strategic path that safeguards its interests regardless of the occupant in the White House. For too many decades the UK has acted as the pawn to America’s king, who has only ever cared about what was in it for them, at least, in his transactional behaviour, Trump has shown the world the true colours of the United States.
Trump vs. Vance – Bluster vs Doctrine
Donald Trump is fundamentally a populist showman, his policies often emerge from grievance, gut instinct, or personal vendettas rather than ideological or even basic political consistency. His worldview is simple, America has been cheated, and it must fight back, preferably with tariffs, sanctions, and slogans. Trump does not truly understand trade dynamics, global supply chains, or the economic interdependencies that underpin Western power.
J.D. Vance, by contrast, is not ignorant, he is dangerous because he understands the system he seeks to dismantle. A Yale Law graduate and former venture capitalist, Vance has articulated a more intellectual brand of nationalist conservatism. He idolises Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, distrusts NATO, and views liberal democracies in Europe as effete, corrupt, and in terminal decline. He sees American democracy not as something to be safeguarded but as something that must be reshaped to reflect traditionalist, nationalist, and authoritarian values. If Trump is the battering ram, Vance is the architect of the new regime to follow.
A Fragile President – The Real Risk of Succession
At 78 years old in 2025, Trump begins his second term as the oldest president in U.S. history. His physical health remains a closely guarded secret, but public appearances already show signs of slowing cognition, reduced stamina, and increased unpredictability. While no medical professional has declared him unfit, actuarial tables and common sense suggest a substantial risk that he may not complete his term.
In that event, J.D. Vance would ascend to the presidency under the 25th Amendment. Far from being a placeholder, Vance would almost certainly seize the opportunity to implement his full vision for America.
Unlike Harry S. Truman’s Presidency following the death of F.D.R in 1945, the Presidency of Lyndon B. Johnson following the assignation of Kennedy in 1963 or Gerald Ford’s accidental presidency, a Vance administration would not be moderate, interim, or humble. It would be the full unleashing of a new hard right ideology, emboldened by Trump’s legacy and justified by emergency rhetoric.
Even should Trump survive his full term, he may step aside in 2028 and endorse Vance as his successor, effectively passing the baton of “America First” to a man who actually believes in its authoritarian implications.
Can Vance ‘Steal’ the 2029 Election?
The 2029 presidential election will be a pivotal moment in modern history. Vance, whether as an incumbent or heir apparent, is likely to face a fractured Democratic Party, weakened institutions, and a judiciary increasingly filled with Trump loyalists. The Republican playbook, refined since 2016, now includes:
- Voter suppression laws across key states
- Gerrymandered districts ensuring minority rule
- Discrediting of mail-in and early voting
- A friendly Supreme Court willing to overlook procedural abuses
In such a climate, it is entirely feasible that Vance could secure the presidency with minority support, bolstered by legal manoeuvres and misinformation campaigns. What makes Vance more concerning than Trump is his strategic patience and his willingness to reshape institutions, electoral commissions, state legislatures, even federal agencies, to entrench long-term control.
A Vance victory in 2029, especially under dubious circumstances, would mark the end of American liberal democracy as the world has known it since 1945.
Geopolitical Consequences – Collapse of the Western Order
Under Trump, and especially under Vance, the United States is turning inward. NATO is already fraying, Trump openly discussed withdrawing in his first term, and Vance has no allegiance to transatlantic security structures. Sanctions against adversaries like Russia and China are increasingly politicised, used not for strategic leverage but for short-term electoral gain or media impact.
Meanwhile, U.S. trade policy is devolving into economic warfare. Tariffs are wielded not as tools of negotiation but as blunt force weapons. Allies are treated as rivals. International agreements are abandoned on a whim. Climate accords, arms control treaties, and global health initiatives have all been targeted.
This shift leaves a vacuum that China, Russia, and opportunistic regional powers will rush to fill. Europe becomes more vulnerable. The Indo Pacific teeters on the edge of militarised competition. Global institutions lose their legitimacy as American leadership fades into erratic isolationism.
The UK’s Dilemma – Caught Between Empires
Britain faces a brutal choice. Its post Brexit hope of a trade deal with the U.S. is dead on arrival under Trump / Vance. At the same time, it cannot ignore the growing economic and regulatory gravitational pull of the European Union.
Under Starmer, Britain appears ready to play the “good soldier,” hoping that quiet diplomacy and personal warmth will keep the special relationship intact. But this is a dangerous illusion. Trump sees allies as vassals. Vance likely sees them as obstacles. Compliance will not buy security. How long before Trump suggests that Britain becomes the US 52nd State after annexing Canada to make it the 51st State?
A Strategy for Sovereign Resilience
Britain must now act not as a junior partner but as a sovereign middle power with global reach and historic intelligence. This mean.
- Forging a new UK-EU security compact, not necessarily rejoining the EU, but deepening defence and intelligence cooperation independent of NATO.
- Diversifying trade and production, reducing reliance on U.S. goods and tech, rebuilding domestic manufacturing, and strengthening links with Commonwealth nations and emerging democracies.
- Increasing trade and other connections with Canada
- Establishing a sovereign tech and AI strategy, avoiding entanglement in U.S.-China tech wars by fostering homegrown capacity and alliances with Europe, Japan, and Canada.
- Reinvesting in strategic autonomy, including food security, energy independence, cyber-resilience, and supply chain integrity.
- Creating a new democratic alliance, one based on shared values, not dependency on U.S. power. The UK can lead a bloc that values democracy, free trade, environmental responsibility, and transparent governance.
The End of Illusions
The Trump / Vance regime is not a fluke, it is a symptom of a deeper, structural realignment in American politics. The United States is moving toward a form of nationalist authoritarianism that will persist beyond any single election. Europe and the UK must prepare for a world where the U.S. is no longer a stable anchor but a source of volatility.
Britain must stop planning around Washington’s election calendar and start planning for strategic survival. That requires political courage, economic discipline, and a clear-eyed understanding of the world as it is becoming.
The storm is here. The question now is whether the UK will anchor itself, or be swept away.